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Forum:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/July
This is a Wikipedia Archive The following forum is a transclusion of tropical discussion on Wikipedia talk pages which occurred before the existence of the Hurricane Wiki. It is simply provided here for ease of access. July Week 1 Big tropical wave in the western Caribbean, and not much else. Local NWS boys say the non-tropical forecast methods are putting it off the Louisiana or upper Texas coast around Tuesday. "Tue the forecast gets interesting..." and "...anything goes this time of year...so stay tuned." There may be something to it, or they may just be so sick of the drought conditions that they're grasping at straws. New Orleans people seem to back them up, so I personally, at least, have something I need to keep an eye on. -- Cyrius|✎ 2 July 2005 13:41 (UTC) :For some reason, July seems to be only slightly more active than June; it isn't until early August before the season really heats up...24.226.10.99 2 July 2005 16:01 (UTC) ::On average, yes. But there's nothing to say this won't be an oddball year with an extremely active July. -- Cyrius|✎ 2 July 2005 16:13 (UTC) Hurricane hunter flight into Caribbean thing scheduled for July 3. -- Cyrius|✎ 2 July 2005 19:29 (UTC) And it's now 96L.INVEST. -- Cyrius|✎ 3 July 2005 03:11 (UTC) Tropical Weather Discussion's classed it as a "special feature" rather than just a tropical wave. "The forecast for this feature is for it to be a possible tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours." Satellite images aren't showing any obvious rotation yet, but there's clearly a lot of convective storms going. -- Cyrius|✎ 3 July 2005 14:57 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three. -- Cyrius|✎ 3 July 2005 21:14 (UTC) I'm going to violate the "no tropical depressions" pseudo-rule, given the issuing of tropical storm warnings. -- Cyrius|✎ 4 July 2005 00:03 (UTC) :I think the pseudo-rule always included that exception. Good call though, I'd missed that. --Golbez July 4, 2005 01:12 (UTC) ::Tropical depressions, while current, should be shown IMO but deleted if they fail to reach tropical storm strength. Right now it looks like this will make first landfall as TD3 but if it makes it back into the Gulf, could be TS Cindy (or Hurricane Cindy) before a landfall in southern Texas or northeastern Mexico...this is starting to remind me of the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season if it continues into an explosive August... 24.226.10.99 4 July 2005 02:44 (UTC) :::I can get behind that deleting bit (unless they are otherwise generating their own exception for some other reason). It's currently forecast to head to the upper Texas coast. Port Arthur, not Brownsville. Probably best if it hits there anyway, the area could use a drought-breaker. -- Cyrius|✎ 4 July 2005 04:03 (UTC) ::::I saw one season have a subheading for "Tropical Depressions" listed after all the storms - that's a good idea, since those are official designations. So we should maybe do a TS while it's active, and if it does nothing, shunt the relevant info into the singular subhed. --Golbez July 4, 2005 06:12 (UTC) In other news, 97L.INVEST out at the Windward Islands. -- Cyrius|✎ 4 July 2005 18:38 (UTC) :Reading the description from the NHC, that will likely be TD4 soon... 24.226.10.98 4 July 2005 21:45 (UTC) ::Navy's calling it 04L.NONAME now, so I'm expecting TD4 in 0300 UTC update. -- Cyrius|✎ 5 July 2005 00:56 (UTC) :::Make that 04L.FOUR. It is definitely Tropical Depression Four. Not surprisingly, it develops close to shore, which is normal for early season storms. Now we have to wait until 0300 UTC for the NHC to officially report it. 24.226.10.99 5 July 2005 02:07 (UTC) If TD3 and TD4 become tropical storms at exactly the same moment (in terms of forecasting times), TD3 becomes Cindy and TD4 becomes Dennis, correct? 24.226.10.99 5 July 2005 04:06 (UTC) It depends on the hour that they become tropical storms. There have been some very close races in the past. By the way, look at the NHC forcast track for TD Four http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032549.shtml?5day. Five days from now, it has it as Hurricane Dennis headed for Florida. Good luck counting the faces of Floridians that turn pale when they hear about this. This is out of control and we aren't even at the peak of the season. Any word on the people in that car that Bret swept off the road in Mexico? E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 5 July 2005 05:05 (UTC) :The worst part (for them) is that it is only July 5th. The peak of hurricane season is still quite a ways away, and the Cape Verde storms are still to come (we could be well into the alphabet by then at this rate). Hurricane Dennis, if it is such as forecasted, would be only a warmup - oh the horror when they see the Cape Verde hurricanes in August and September on their doorstep! I guess, at this rate, most of the names scratched off the 2011 list will come in the middle of the list, like Harvey, Irene, Jose and Katrina, and the late season storms will be towards the end of the list, like Ophelia, Philippe, Rita and Stan or beyond...(Interesting note: If Irene is retired (right now it is likely to be a late August or early September storm, so very possible), it would be the 5th straight year that the "I" storm is retired, you have to wonder how many more names there are on that list, especially among females!) :Right now, I am thinking this season will be just as busy as 1995, if not more so (that puts us into the Greek Alphabet come November!). My current prediction is 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. It will calm down for a bit in late July but Hurricane Emily at the end of the month and into early August will blow it wide open. 24.226.10.99 5 July 2005 15:17 (UTC) Wait, I thought we weren't supposed to write a narrative on a tropical depression unless there's watches and warnings issued for it? That's what I got out of the discussion above. bob rulz July 5, 2005 10:39 (UTC) :Yes, the general practice is "no depressions". The practice was violated for Three/Cindy due to the tropical storm watches that were issued before it was named. Four/Dennis has rendered arguing about it moot by strengthening. -- Cyrius|✎ 5 July 2005 15:03 (UTC) The early season activity here is very unusual (as some of you have noticed). Just for reference, the fourth named storm of the 1995 season formed on July 28. You all see how that season turned out. Now with the more southerly tendancy of these storms, the southeast could be in trouble. I predict that the season activity is going to fall off a cliff come October, like it did last year. July, August and September I think will be very interesting months in the tropics. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 5 July 2005 16:48 (UTC) :When was the last time four tropical storms formed before July 5th? --tomf688(talk) July 5, 2005 19:56 (UTC) ::Never, according to the NHC. Intro already notes it. -- Cyrius|✎ 5 July 2005 20:05 (UTC) Never say never Cyrius. I'm sure it's happened before, just not since the Civil War. :) E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 5 July 2005 21:02 (UTC) :In any reasonable sense of the word, never. We certainly don't care about it happening before 1752, when the definition of what July 5th was changed for the UK and its colonies. -- Cyrius|✎ 5 July 2005 21:08 (UTC) ::I did some research based on the archives on the Unisys site, and found that the previous record for earliest-four Tropical Storms was Cindy (Yes, the 4th storm was a C) in 1959, named on July 7th. I added it to the main 2005 page, so you guys who keep this page updated can move it or edit it or whatever you want, but just thought it should be mentioned. The Great Zo - 23:50 UTC, July 6 2005 Based on the forecasts, I think they are going really low on Dennis the Menace (?). I wouldn't be surprised if, by the weekend, it is a major hurricane. The only thing going against him is the mountainous terrain of Cuba and Jamaica and hitting it as a Category 1 hurricane would take it right back down to a tropical depression. If he holds his strength through there, I wouldn't be surprised to see a dangerous Category 3 Hurricane Dennis aiming straight at the Florida Panhandle... Better have the Hurricane Dennis article ready for the 2005 storm, since if that is what happens, we might need it... 24.226.10.99 5 July 2005 22:26 (UTC) :This is an encyclopedia. If we're a little bit slow reporting new facts, it's not a problem. What's with all the predictions, Mr. 24.226? -- Cyrius|✎ 6 July 2005 01:20 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dennis is beginning to look like deja vu here...its intensity forecasts and projected track are eerily similar to that of Charley. bob rulz July 6, 2005 09:18 (UTC) Whoever made that prediction up there is psychic. The forcasts now have Dennis as a Category 3 at landfall in Pensacola, Florida. Bob hit it right on the nose: "It looks like deja vu all over again." Then again, the forcasts tend to fluctuate. We'll just have to wait and see. (The suspence is killing me). E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 6 July 2005 17:29 (UTC) By the way, with a minimum pressure of 992mb, and wind gusts reported of up to 99mph, and some radar showings of an eye forming, I would not be surprised if Cindy were posthumously promoted to a category 1 hurricane in the July summary, a la Gaston. --Golbez July 6, 2005 18:15 (UTC) Let's not put too much faith in long-range forecasts. If in a week it has hit anywhere from Tampico to Miami, I won't be surprised. -- Cyrius|✎ 6 July 2005 21:40 (UTC) This is a pic I wish I could put in the article but it's © AP. Should I fairuse it? http://i.a.cnn.net/nascar/2005/news/headlines/cup/07/07/atlanta_stormdamage.ap/atlanta2_ap.jpg (Damage caused to Atlanta Motor Speedway by a tornado spawned by Cindy) --Golbez July 7, 2005 18:01 (UTC) :It doesn't in a legal sense qualify. -- Cyrius|✎ 7 July 2005 18:43 (UTC) Week 2 Eyeing a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles that's showing some organization. Possible that it may be a tropical depression in the next few days. Seems that this early season activity isn't slowing down. bob rulz July 9, 2005 15:41 (UTC) :AKA 98L.INVEST. -- Cyrius|✎ 9 July 2005 16:04 (UTC) ::It's an awful thought, but this is another shot at breaking the "earliest Category 5" record. -- Cyrius|✎ 9 July 2005 16:07 (UTC) ::Where do you find out what INVEST number they are? bob rulz 00:43, July 10, 2005 (UTC) ::: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html --Goobergunch|? 04:29, 10 July 2005 (UTC) ::: Thanks, I was wondering where you guys kept getting that INVEST stuff. (: bob rulz 08:15, July 10, 2005 (UTC) The above linked Navy page is now declaring 05L.NONAME. By my understanding, that means a Depression will be announced at 11:00 EDT tonight. Here-we-go-again... The Great Zo 01:48, 11 July 2005 (UTC) :NHC has a forecast out for it... looks like another hurricane heading for the Caribbean/U.S. O.o --tomf688(talk) 02:57, July 11, 2005 (UTC) ::I'd say Hurricane Emily will be a major East Coast threat next week at this rate...did this form earlier than Bertha in 1996? If so, this is the earliest Cape Verde storm ever... CrazyC83 03:25, 11 July 2005 (UTC) I can't believe this. In five days, we could have another hurricane taking a shot at Florida and it's a stretch to call this mid-July! This is normally what late August and September look like. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:30, 11 July 2005 (UTC) :The old record for earliest-fifth-storm is July 23... Emily will easily shatter that. It feels like August (an ACTIVE August, no less)... a Cat 4 already the Gulf, the first Cape Verde storm forming... rumors of another strong wave coming off of Africa too... At this point I'm rather speechless. Just... wow. The Great Zo 03:59, 11 July 2005 (UTC) ::Wow, this IS amazing. A July that looks like September! bob rulz 04:05, July 11, 2005 (UTC) :::And what will September look like? A new storm every hour? CrazyC83 04:11, 11 July 2005 (UTC) I think I'm going to have to go lie down. -- Cyrius|✎ 04:37, 11 July 2005 (UTC) As Zo pointed out, there is another vigorous wave off Africa. The NHC says slow development is possible over the next few days. This could be bad. Florida could resemble Berlin after World War II if this keeps up. What's the greatest number of storms ever to form in July? We may break it. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:24, 11 July 2005 (UTC) :August 4 is the earliest that six storms have formed. Only six times have five storms formed by July. The record for most storms to actually form IN the month of July is 4 - reached three times, in 1966, 1995, and 1997. The Great Zo 19:36, 11 July 2005 (UTC) I went back to do some more research and can now verify with certainty that Bertha was, by a rather significant margin, the earliest "cape verde" Tropical Storm to form. Though there's no concrete definition for "Cape Verde" storm, I can say that Bertha was the first storm ever to form east of 40.0W - it formed at 39.0W on July 5, 1996. The only other noteworthy July storm was Anna in 1969, which formed at 36.0W on July 27. The moral of the story is, Emily/TD5 still lags significantly behind Bertha in both date and position, and won't claim any sort of record... in this sense, anyway. For comparison, Emily will likely form on July 11 and as of now is already at 42.9W. The Great Zo 05:01, 11 July 2005 (UTC) ---- From the 5pm discussion on TD5: "Good Luck finding a center in the depression this afternoon." Oh, how I've missed you, Franklin. <3 --Golbez 20:46, July 11, 2005 (UTC) :Ah, Franklin. A newcomer to the scene (he's got huge shoes to fill though from Floyd in 1999). Maybe after that everyone will slow down and cool off before anyone else tries to get in the act... CrazyC83 03:29, 12 July 2005 (UTC) ::He meant the NHC forecaster James Franklin, who signed the discussion. -- Cyrius|✎ 03:44, 12 July 2005 (UTC) :::Yep; last year, it seemed most of the good discussions were penned by Franklin. Like the Venezuela one :) I can't recall seeing his signature on any discussion or advisory thus far this year, but it's easily possible I missed one. Most seem to be from Stewart so far. (God, I need a life) --Golbez 03:51, July 12, 2005 (UTC) ::::"Venezuela one"? -- Cyrius|✎ 06:17, 12 July 2005 (UTC) :::::Awesome, I was right, it was by Franklin :D Yeah, where he yelled at the Venezuelan gov't for not letting him fly a plane through Earl. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/dis/al052004.discus.010.shtml? --Golbez 13:13, July 12, 2005 (UTC) IF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN THE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED ACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE. HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE STORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION... :They managed to find a center later in the day, it's now Tropical Storm Emily. -- Cyrius|✎ That line from one of Stewart's discussions that read: "After Dennis deepened at a rate that bordered on insane..." was pretty good. I like that. By the way, Golbez, I'm sure Franklin missed you too <3. (You're creepin' me out, man). E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 04:36, 12 July 2005 (UTC) :Yeah, Stewart is second only to Franklin in my eyes. I don't like Bevin, he seems conservative so far. I think he was the guy who said Dennis would be 65kt on landfall with Cuba. --Golbez 19:31, July 12, 2005 (UTC) ::Honestly, I prefer the CBC crew of guys like Don Cherry and even TSN's Bob McKenzie, because the ESPN guys (Gary Thorne and Bill Clement) just don't understand the sport of hockey... all they do is hype big-market teams... and... what's that? Oh, we're discussing hurricane forecasters! Whoops :D The Great Zo 19:40, 12 July 2005 (UTC) :::And back on subject, Franklin got me laughing yet again: THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY. :::The Great Zo 20:38, 12 July 2005 (UTC) ::::Now you see why I love the man. --Golbez 20:54, July 12, 2005 (UTC) Check out this discussion from Franklin: WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO. Kind of goes against common sense, doesn't it. And while we're at it, compare the Advisory 7 (11 am July 12) 5 day map for Emily, with the Advisory 19 (11pm Sept 6) 5 day map for Ivan. The similarities are amazing. However, the 5pm Emily map goes further south, which sends it directly over Jamaica - This season will end without a single country north of Costa Rica going unaffected from a storm. Who's been hit so far? Mexico, USA, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala? (Including Pacific too, since Adrian was a rare storm) --Golbez 21:14, July 12, 2005 (UTC) :Is the struggling for Emily over? The latest vortex data message has a pressure drop to 996 mb (it was 1003 at 5PM today... that's a drop of 7 MB in about 5 hours) and max flight winds of 79 knots. Combined with the satellite images I'm seeing, I think we'll see a hurricane here sooner rather than later. The Great Zo 01:56, 14 July 2005 (UTC) ::STRANGE! As soon as I was done posting the above, I refreshed the ohio state advisory real-time database... and the update to upgrade it to Hurricane strength is out. So much for "it won't be a hurricane before it makes it through the islands..." The Great Zo 01:58, 14 July 2005 (UTC) :::Wonderful timing, the official NHC update was posted at 955 pm AST, or one minute before the comment in question. Still have to wait for the full advisory for solid numbers though. -- Cyrius|✎ 02:30, 14 July 2005 (UTC) ::::A new vortex message just came out (valid 10:24 EDT, 2:24 UTC) and dropped the pressure down to 992 mb. That's an unofficial pressure drop of 11 mb in about 5 and a half hours. The Great Zo 02:42, 14 July 2005 (UTC) ::::And Knabb's being conservative again, bringing the thing to 115 MPH in two full days. A storm that just gained 30 MPH in 3 hours isn't going to take two days to gain another 25. The Great Zo 03:16, 14 July 2005 (UTC) 99L.INVEST Jiminy bloody Christmas, what the hell. A new Invest just departed Africa. It looks to be about 500 miles SW of Cape Verde. Did someone screw with my calendar? Is it September? --Golbez 23:34, July 12, 2005 (UTC) :I'm going to need to lie down again. -- Cyrius|✎ 01:07, 13 July 2005 (UTC) :Nope, no screwing with calendar. The NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks is saying that conditions are very favorable for development, and that we could have a tropical depression in 24 hours or so...this is insane! bob rulz 06:42, July 13, 2005 (UTC) This could be bad. Then again, maybe it could dissipate like the last INVEST. Cyrius, I think this would be a good time for you to take a vacation, just don't go to Florida. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:12, 13 July 2005 (UTC) :No TD6 yet...looks like Franklin is staying back, letting Emily do her thing... CrazyC83 03:22, 14 July 2005 (UTC) ::NHC has backed off on the wording in the outlook and removed it from the "1-2-3" graphic. Navy page still lists it though. The Great Zo 05:22, 14 July 2005 (UTC) :::Looks like the Navy had backed off on it, too. They've taken off the mention of the INVEST. --Patteroast 17:29, 14 July 2005 (UTC) ::::I still see it on the FNMOC. And don't worry, there are two candidates right behind it. --Golbez 17:33, July 14, 2005 (UTC) :::::Well, nevermind.. it's back on the Navy site, too. Odd. --Patteroast 20:44, 14 July 2005 (UTC) ::::::99L is finally off FNMOC. The Atlantic is quiet, excepting Emily; we do, however, have 05E.Eugene and 90C.INVEST. I guess the huracan gods weren't content with having only one storm at a time. --Golbez 17:48, July 18, 2005 (UTC) Yeah, Mother Nature has three of her pets cruisin the oceans right now. Typhoon Haitang is giving Taiwan a bad day, Tropical Storm Eugene in the Eastern Pacific and Emily, now a Category 1 off Mexico. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:27, 18 July 2005 (UTC) Week 3 Well, here we are at the third week of July. We've got our second major hurricane, fifth named storm, and a candidate for the next one is on the horizon. Fun. -- Cyrius|✎ 00:06, 15 July 2005 (UTC) :Should we move the Emily information onto a separate page? It's becoming pretty clear that this will be another major storm. This season appears headed for a record in terms of names being retired (4 is the record, three times)! CrazyC83 01:45, 15 July 2005 (UTC) ::Wait for it. -- Cyrius|✎ 01:58, 15 July 2005 (UTC) Oh, great, now Emily's track is shifting north. Watch it slip through the Yucatan Channel and come up and smack me around. -- Cyrius|✎ 03:21, 15 July 2005 (UTC) The forcast track still has it south of Cancun, what are you talking about? Emily has broken the record for the earliest, second major hurricane. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:27, 15 July 2005 (UTC) :The discussions have indicated that the track (and a few of the models in particular) are starting to shift slightly north. Though the forecast is only being shifted slightly as of now, the shift is evident on the track maps. Have fun with TWC! That's how I used to track them back in the "old days" of the late 90's :D The Great Zo 03:43, 15 July 2005 (UTC) :The 5-day endpoint has moved a couple hundred miles north, changing from pointing at Tampico to Brownsville, Texas. The track has also shifted north on the Yucatan, and if the trend continues, will almost clear it by the next full update. -- Cyrius|✎ 03:50, 15 July 2005 (UTC) ::2:00 AM, July 15... Emily hits Cat 4 with winds of 135 MPH. Further strengthening is forecast. Cyrius, perhaps your decision not to participate in the last-storm pool was a good idea - your prediction that Emily could be another chance at earliest-cat-5 is certainly on the right track... eek. The Great Zo 05:43, 15 July 2005 (UTC) :::And then it dropped to Cat 2, and shot back up to Cat 4! Damn freaky storm. -- Cyrius|✎ 03:35, 16 July 2005 (UTC) ::::No it's actually pretty normal. When storms become intense, the eyewall breaks down and then is replaced, leading to fluctuations. Pollinator 03:46, July 16, 2005 (UTC) :::::Eyewall replacement cycles, which I wrote about in eyewall...hey, where'd it go!? Stupid vandals! -- Cyrius|✎ 03:57, 16 July 2005 (UTC) Seems like the tropics have calmed down somewhat (besides emily of course)? --tomf688(talk) 04:16, July 16, 2005 (UTC) :99L.INVEST is still out there. -- Cyrius|✎ 04:44, 16 July 2005 (UTC) 99L is in a quagmire, but Emily is almost a Category 5. A Category 5 in July. That only happens in the Western Pacific, right? E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:26, 16 July 2005 (UTC) The system north of the islands, forecast to move into the Bahamas, has prompted a tentatively scheduled Recon flight for late tomorrow... The Great Zo 14:37, 20 July 2005 (UTC) Those flights cost a lot of money. They wouldn't send a plane out there unless they were really curious about a system. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:46, 20 July 2005 (UTC) :I'm assuming y'all are referring to the newly tagged 90L.INVEST, due north of Hispaniola. --Golbez 17:36, July 20, 2005 (UTC) ::Yup, that'd be it. As for the fact that flights cost a lot of money - they do tentatively schedule a lot of flights for areas of concern, but sometimes do cancel them if nothing pans out. The Great Zo 19:58, 20 July 2005 (UTC) 90.L will be investigated today as scheduled. Latest vis satellites are showing a circulation is definitely forming. If you wanted a breather after Emily, you've got maybe the rest of today to take a break. Not that this one should do anything notable, of course. Next storm will be Frederick, and if this one forms, it will be the first time ever we've had six named storms before August. The Great Zo 16:20, 21 July 2005 (UTC) :Son of a ''bitch!'' A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS RECENTLY ESTIMATED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM HAS DEVELOPED. :The sucker's round and starting to spin. It might just skip straight past tropical depression into being TS Franklin. And on top of that, there's a big tropical wave in the western Caribbean that might make TS strength in a few days. By the start of next week, we could be here speculating on candidates for Harvey. -- Cyrius|✎ 18:52, 21 July 2005 (UTC) ::Regular CYCLONE recon flights have been scheduled starting tomorrow. They're even sending out NOAA's Gulfstream IV. -- Cyrius|✎ 18:57, 21 July 2005 (UTC) :::Am I alone in hoping that a certain forecaster gets to write lots of cynical discussions for a storm named Franklin? :D "FRANKLIN TURNED A LOT IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY... MY WIFE SAYS I DO THE SAME IN BED..." --Golbez 19:42, July 21, 2005 (UTC) And there we go, TD6. Probably have TS Franklin by the next update. -- Cyrius|✎ 21:22, 21 July 2005 (UTC) :Interesting forecast track. Reminds me of Jeanne last year (See image for loopy Jeanne). --tomf688(talk) 21:26, July 21, 2005 (UTC) Week 4 For next month, I think we should transform these "weekly" discussion subheadings into dayspans (days 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, etc.). A week is kind of ambiguous. --tomf688(talk) 22:03, July 21, 2005 (UTC) :Oh and 5 day stretches would shorten the subheadings a bit, since 7-8 days can make them a wee bit long. --tomf688(talk) 22:04, July 21, 2005 (UTC) ::I figured the week by the number, that's not ambiguous at all. 1-7 = week 1, 8-14 = week two, 15-21 = week three, etc. --Golbez 22:56, July 21, 2005 (UTC) 06L.Franklin Anyone notice anything peculiar about the 8pm advisory? They didn't tell us where it is. :P At the bottom it "repeats" the coordinates, but they were never given earlier. --Golbez 00:07, July 22, 2005 (UTC) :And now the NHC's frontpage denies the existence of any storms at all. Will someone please code them a new site? --Golbez 00:10, July 22, 2005 (UTC) ::Considering they probably spent several billion dollars designing this site, I don't think they need another one. ;) --tomf688(talk) 00:29, July 22, 2005 (UTC) :They issued a corrected bulletin with the position. -- Cyrius|✎ 00:26, 22 July 2005 (UTC) ::I guess someone had to step on out once Emily was done...they wouldn't let the Tropics stay calm...who knows what will happen down the road... CrazyC83 03:00, 22 July 2005 (UTC) Guys this is insane. This has never happened before (in records that date back to before the Civil War). It's like after one storm dissipates another forms. And remember, this is STILL JULY! The forcast has it heading out to sea. It's a piece of crap right now but Frank's expected to be near hurricane force in a couple of days. This really sucks. This is absolutly ridiculous. There have been eight or nine Atlantic Invests so far this year. A mere two or three failed to amount to anything. There's another Invest in the Caribbean you know, the Center says it could develop once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Cyrius, you might need to lie down again. I know I do. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 05:30, 22 July 2005 (UTC) :I suspect the word "insane" is going to get used a lot this year ("bordering on insane"). -- Cyrius|✎ 06:04, 22 July 2005 (UTC) I'm sure Floridians are going to come up with a few less family-friendly terms for this season. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:34, 22 July 2005 (UTC) :What is this? A storm moving away from land and out to sea? I've just come to expect them to make landfall and stall over the Ohio Valley by now. --tomf688(talk) 21:02, July 22, 2005 (UTC) FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN :The Great Zo 15:14, 23 July 2005 (UTC) :Keith already posted that below. ;) --tomf688(talk) 15:15, July 23, 2005 (UTC) What are the conditions like currently in the Atlantic from 36-42°N? I'm wondering if Franklin will restrengthen suddenly in the mid-latitudes, like Alex last season and Juan in 2003? CrazyC83 01:32, 27 July 2005 (UTC) 07L.Gert Ain't never gonna end! *giggles* --Golbez 19:05, July 22, 2005 (UTC) : May I change my informal bet (Lee) into a greek letter? This is just unreal!!! Awolf002 19:43, 22 July 2005 (UTC) Right now, 91L is east off the Yucatan coast. Remember my joke about how after such an active early season, we'll only have one storm in September? Someone from geo-earth astutely replied: "Yes, but that one storm will probably be named Wilma." --Golbez 19:58, July 22, 2005 (UTC) Guys, have you ever noticed that this season is starting to look like the Western Pacific? That's the scariest thought that's ever occurred to me since the season started. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:06, 22 July 2005 (UTC) Ugh. They've got hurricane hunter flights scheduled for 91L. The designation on the second assumes the first will find a depression or better. -- Cyrius|✎ 03:43, 23 July 2005 (UTC) :Are these schedules online or something? --tomf688(talk) 03:46, July 23, 2005 (UTC) ::Aircraft recon link on the NHC's sidebar. Relevant bits are the "Plan of the day" files. -- Cyrius|✎ 05:08, 23 July 2005 (UTC) Special Tropical Disturbance Statement issued by the NHC at 1:05 PM CDT (1805 UTC) - looks like TD7 (Gert?) is forming?http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/231805.shtml? CrazyC83 18:43, 23 July 2005 (UTC) :It just went to 07L.NONAME on the Navy site, so presumably they think it has already formed!--Keith Edkins 19:11, 23 July 2005 (UTC) Oh crap E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:33, 23 July 2005 (UTC) ::There is a chance, though, that TD7 could make landfall before even becoming a tropical storm...it will be close, it is moving towards land and it developed really close to land. This might be the first "dud" of 2005 (there was only one last season)... CrazyC83 20:31, 23 July 2005 (UTC) Hey, look at the 2004 season summary map. See anything odd? Compared with this season, that is? ... That's right! NOT ONE STORM HIT MEXICO LAST YEAR. And so far this year, we've had Bret and Emily, and soon TD7-Gert. Meanwhile, the Outer Banks and the Florida peninsula have been completely spared. Wild. --Golbez 20:50, July 23, 2005 (UTC) Ivan gave Cancun hurricane force winds. Bonnie scared them a bit when she decided to come back to life. The area of disturbed weather that became Tropical Storm Matthew dumped a bunch of rain on the Tampico/Vera Cruz area when it stalled of the coast, gathering energy. But yes, you are right, no direct landfalls occured. The Florida peninsula has been fine, but the Panhande has seen a strong tropical storm (Arlene) and a strong Category 3 hurricane (Dennis); the latter doing some $5 billion in damage. Franklin is poised to become the first tropical cyclone this season to cross 30 degrees north latitude. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:12, 23 July 2005 (UTC) :Dennis was a tropical storm well past 30°N latitude (to somewhere around 34°N), and actually its point of landfall was just north of that. CrazyC83 21:59, 23 July 2005 (UTC) 92L.INVEST and 93L.INVEST Teehee. --Golbez 13:56, July 26, 2005 (UTC) :At least we're almost out of July...but August is traditionally worse... CrazyC83 15:53, 26 July 2005 (UTC) :I think I'll just pass out where I am now. -- Cyrius|✎ 19:50, 26 July 2005 (UTC) ::Ugh, and I called it too: :::By the start of next week, we could be here speculating on candidates for Harvey. -- Cyrius|✎ 18:52, 21 July 2005 (UTC) ::Sucks being right all the time. -- Cyrius|✎ 19:56, 26 July 2005 (UTC) :::An invest but no flights scheduled? This system of theirs, I must learn. --tomf688<TALK> 20:05, July 26, 2005 (UTC) ::::"Invest" in this sense translates to "Hey, ya'll, lookit this!" When used to designate flights, it translates to "Hey, ya'll, we're lookin' at this in our aeroplane!" -- Cyrius|✎ 01:24, 27 July 2005 (UTC) :Now we have 93L.INVEST, and according to the NHC, both of them could see slow organization over the next few days. bob rulz 00:13, July 27, 2005 (UTC) :They have scheduled a invest for tommorow afternoon for 92L. Bet ya Fraklin will dissipate when it form ha NONAMW TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Well, we passed that all-important step when they first mention the word "depression" in the TWO. What fun... The Great Zo 16:25, 28 July 2005 (UTC) :They have to be careful with how they word these announcements. If they ever call a tropical wave "frisky" I'll never be able to take it seriously. --tomf688<TALK> 19:58, July 28, 2005 (UTC) You gotta give these guys a break! Their heads must be spinning with all this going on. Some "comic relief" is definitely needed. :-) Awolf002 20:06, 28 July 2005 (UTC) At least we may break the 'evil "I" storm' trend. At this rate, Irene will be the first storm of August instead of September. We could be looking at an evil "M" storm or evil "O" storm. E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:16, 31 July 2005 (UTC) :At first I saw this and thought of Evil Otto, and started freaking out. Then I realized Otto was on last year's list. -- Cyrius|✎ 00:40, 31 July 2005 (UTC) What? E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:45, 31 July 2005 (UTC) :Otto formed last year after a month of inactivity. That's all I can interpret... ;) --tomf688<TALK> 01:25, July 31, 2005 (UTC) :Evil Otto! The bouncing indestructible evil smiley face villain from Berzerk! I provided a link! -- Cyrius|✎ 02:33, 31 July 2005 (UTC) Cyrius, have you been drinking? :) E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 05:50, 31 July 2005 (UTC) :No, I just had a rather large MAME collection a few years back. -- Cyrius|✎ 06:25, 31 July 2005 (UTC) Oi. and shakes head E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:23, 31 July 2005 (UTC) Passing the torch? So, Frankling is winding down just to pass the torch on to another possible TD. Is this the pattern we have to endure until October? Argghh... Awolf002 14:51, 29 July 2005 (UTC) :Not so fast on Franklin being dead yet - responsibility has moved to the Canadian Hurricane Centre. http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html CrazyC83 21:31, 29 July 2005 (UTC) ::Responsibility for tropical systems never transfers to the Canadians. The discontinuing of advisories by the NHC is due to Franklin going extratropical. It's still strong enough for the CHC to keep an eye on though. -- Cyrius|✎ 22:14, 29 July 2005 (UTC) :::I would personally still list Franklin as "alive" but this has a less tenuous hold than Dennis; Dennis was still a tropical depression, Franklin will be an extratropical cyclone. We care more about the tropical part than the cyclone part. --Golbez 22:18, July 29, 2005 (UTC) ::::In my opinion, an "extratropical" cyclone should still be monitored until it leaves any populated land areas or becomes so minimal that it is not anything to watch. After all, in some cases (we saw it with Frances and Ivan last year) they can still do considerable damage even after transition...(Ivan would later regain tropical characteristics). If it is in open water and not touching anyone, then it should be considered over. After all, this is still a strong tropical storm-strength system still... CrazyC83 00:44, 30 July 2005 (UTC) I see Canadian meteorologists like typing in caps as well. :) --tomf688<TALK> 02:41, July 30, 2005 (UTC) :They always have, although they do less than they used to, when they did it for everything (it makes it hard to cut and paste and forces us to actually type it in). They have e-mail notification for tropical storms and hurricanes threatening or affecting Canada or Canadian waters available as well, click here. CrazyC83 03:44, 30 July 2005 (UTC) Hi all, would like to introduce myself, just found the world of wikipedia, but I have been following hurricanes as long as I can remember. I actually rode out Ivan last year. Well, anyways, back to the topic at hand. Due to Franklin being completely extratropical and moving away from the Canadian landmass, I removed the current section. Holderca1 14:22, 30 July 2005 (UTC) :Well, if nothing forms by the 11:00 EDT advisory time tonight, we'll have gone through our first full day without a tropical system since before Cindy... and if you want to get technical, we only have to make it through 5:00 EDT in order to have no storms on July 30 in UTC. 68.61.62.242 15:59, 30 July 2005 (UTC) ::Two potential depressions out there swirling around, though. One isn't as healthy as it was earlier, but the other could develop into a depression soon. --tomf688<TALK> 17:43, July 30, 2005 (UTC) :::The one to the east of the Winward Islands is looking fairly healthy. The models are in good agreement at keeping it on a west-northwest path across the southern Caribbean. The other near Hispaniola is interacting with land too much to develop at the moment. All models are putting it very near the Florida peninsula in a few days. Holderca1 20:44, 30 July 2005 (UTC) What's this? Do my eyes decieve me? There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. (The Invests not withstanding). E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:08, 31 July 2005 (UTC)